Yunda shares (002120): Cost and management advantages continue to deepen the moat
Event: Yunda shares released the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report, and the company’s 2018 revenue was 138.56 trillion, +38 for ten years.76%; net profit attributable to mother 26.98 ppm, +69 for ten years.76%; net profit after deduction is 21.3.5 billion, +38 a year.66%.Q1 2019 revenue was 66.8.5 billion, up from +151.60%; net profit attributable to mother 5.6.7 billion, an increase of 40 in ten years.38%; deducted non-attributed net profit 5.00 billion, an annual 无锡夜网 increase of 38.08%. Opinion: The company continues to grow faster than the industry average.The company’s business growth in the four quarters of 2018 was 55.15%, 49.87%, 45.40%, 47.15%, all significantly surpass the industry, the company’s express market share has reached 13.77%, 2 units higher than in 2017.Beginning in 2016, the company has consistently maintained a performance that exceeds the industry average.The first is that the company strengthens the management and control capabilities of cars, transits, and outlets through scientific planning of routes and routes, resulting in continuous improvement in service quality. (2018 postal office ranked third in the entire time limit, second only to SF and EMS; effective replacement rate average monthly averageThe value is 0.77, second only to SF, and much lower than industry 2.24 average level), and further promote the high growth of business volume to produce higher scale effects.The quality of services and cost advantages brought by management capabilities have resulted in high growth for the company. Cost control capabilities remain high, and single ticket costs continue to decrease.In 2018, the company’s trailer dumping ratio increased by 6.1 single, the percentage of franchisees running straight increased by 2.41 single tickets, single ticket weight decreased by 12.94%, the overall sorting processing capacity increased by 51%, and the number of employees fell by 6.67% increase in per capita comprehensive efficiency by 18.84%.Courier service single ticket cost is 1.22 yuan, down 11 before.60%, including single ticket conversion cost1.21 yuan, down 10 before.7%, single ticket shipping cost is 0.83 yuan, down 11 before.2%. In the fourth quarter of 2018, peak profits increased rapidly, and in the third quarter, Fengchao’s equity income contributed significantly.In the fourth quarter of 2018, the company well controlled the provision of temporary costs and raised prices, breaking through the situation of “making money but not making a profit” due to excessive temporary costs in the past peak season.Net profit 7.25 ppm, a significant increase of 80 a year.1%.In addition, the company sold Fengchao Technology13 in the third quarter.5% equity recognition of earnings, creating net investment income for the third quarter6.5.1 billion.In terms of three fees, in 2018, the company’s management expenses, the average increase in sales expenses was less than the volume increase, financial expenses continued to be negative (income increase), and the three fees per ticket continued to decrease.The gross profit of express business in 2018 is expected to be about 60 million. 2019Q1 The company still maintains high profitability in a fiercely competitive environment.In the first quarter of 2019, industry competition has intensified.However, the company’s operating conditions are still bright and business volume has increased by 40%.58%, revenue from express delivery increased by 156.32% (mainly due to the fact that the distribution fees began to be included in the income). Comparable caliber single-sale revenues were relatively stable, and non-net profit increased by 38.08%, indicating that the company’s scale effect, management barriers continue to translate into operating results, while Yunda’s service quality advantage makes its price level or industry stronger. Investment Strategy.Although the competition in the industry is intensifying this year, we are optimistic about the company’s strategic forward cycle development trend.The company has continuously raised barriers to cost, management culture and service quality. It is expected that the company’s express delivery business volume will continue to grow strongly and its market share will steadily increase.The company may still develop a positive cycle of “quality service-rapid business volume development-scale effect, technology reduction and cost reduction-how much market share”.We adjusted our profit forecast and estimated net profit for the years 19, 20 and 21 to be 29.42, 37.57, 47.41 trillion, corresponding to 1, respectively.72, 2.19, 2.77 yuan, corresponding to the closing price of PE on April 26 were 21.9 times, 17.2 times, 13.6 times.Maintain the level of “prudent overweight”. risk warning.The growth of e-commerce retail has grown rapidly, capital expenditures, and labor costs have risen faster than expected, and the industry price war has exceeded expectations.