Changan Automobile (000625) January 2020 Sales Review: Autonomous January performance is better than the industry Changan Ford
Recently, the company released the January 2020 production and sales report: in January 2020, Changan Automobile sold a total of about 13 cars.50,000, at least -4.6%.The comments are as follows: Changan Automobile’s sales growth in January was better than the industry: According to the China Automobile Association, passenger car sales in January 2020 were 161.40,000, at least -20.2%.The industry sales in January were hardly affected by the Spring Festival. The actual working days in January 2020 were only 17 days, compared with 22 days in January 2019. The 杭州桑拿 epidemic situation was mainly in February-March.Of the Changan Automobile’s sales in January, the three major independent bases (Chongqing + Hebei + Hefei) sold a total of 81,337 units, an increase of 3.3%.Especially in Hefei base, the sales of CS75 Plus drove the sales of Hefei base to increase by 312.2%.By model, the CS75 series sold 27,573 units in January, each 56%, and the CS55 series sold 10,952 units, about -18 each time.7%, the CS35 series sells 10,253 vehicles, about -47 a year.7%, Yidong sold 6,560 vehicles, about -23% each year.Auchan brand Auchan X7 sold 13,007 units in January, which was 17 month-on-month.4%.The Kaicheng brand sold 14,835 units in January. Changan Ford sold 15,358 vehicles in January, four a year.2%: Changan Ford sales are increasing for two consecutive months.The main new model, Ruiji, was launched in December 2019, driving Changan Ford’s production and sales to rebound.The number of Changan Ford’s crops in January was 7,206, with a significant decrease in output. Only Changan Ford implemented a strategy of “selling production based on sales.” The models for the December 2019 crop are expected to be sold in January.We expect that the restructuring of Ruiji’s hot sales will gradually eliminate the impact of the epidemic on production, and Changan Ford’s production and sales will continue to increase. Changan Automobile’s slimming and efficiency improvement, 2020-2021 performance can be expected: In 2020, the company’s independent sector will enter the new product cycle again. In the second half of 2019, CS75Plus, CS55Plus, and Yidong will be launched. The strong market performance will drive the 2020 independent sectorProfitability is expected to reach record highs.The company increased its efforts to reduce costs and expenses in 2019, and it is expected that the expenses will also decrease.In the calendar year of 2019, the company has successively stripped of non-profit sectors such as Changan New Energy, Changan PSA, etc. Changan Ford new models, the Lincoln Adventurer and subsequent explorers will be listed successively. 2020-2021 will be a new growth cycle for Changfu.We expect EPS to be -0 in 2019-2021.52 yuan, 0.83 yuan and 1.51 yuan, corresponding PE is -18X, 12X and 6X respectively, maintaining the “recommended” level risk warning: the automotive market boom continues to decline, new model sales are lower than expected, and the epidemic affects the automotive industry beyond expectations.