Tielong Logistics (600125) Interim Report Comments: Performance Meets Expectations Shafei Line Cuts Fees into a Drag
In the first half of the year, revenue increased by 1 every year.29%, net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 4.30%, performance in line with expectations On August 29, Tielong Logistics released its 2019 Interim Report: 1) Long-term slight increase in operating income 1.29% to 77.7.1 billion, net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 4.30% to 2.$ 6.6 billion, a reduction of non-net profit by 2.59% to 2.53 ppm; 2) Interim results are 无锡桑拿网in line with expectations (our earnings forecast is 2.6.2 billion).The main reasons for the performance are: 1) the transportation costs of the Shaying Line have fallen; 2) the profit contribution of the supply chain has decreased; 3) the actual delivery scale has decreased.Based on the outlook for the second half of the year, we will adjust the EPS to 0 in 2019-2021.38, 0.43, 0.48 yuan, lowered the target price to 7.20-7.50 RMB.Short-term lack of catalysts, but considering the long-term growth potential of special boxes, it is downgraded to the “overweight” level. The special container business maintained high growth, and the Shaying line and supply chain business slightly dragged down the first half of the year. The company’s gross profit increased by 35.84 million yuan annually, an increase of 7.At 06%, the performance of each business segment was differentiated.The special box business has significant operating benefits and achieved gross profit1.6.3 billion (29% of total gross profit).90%), an increase of 22 per year.81%.Affected by lower transportation costs of the Shaying Line, railway freight and port logistics operations achieved gross profit2.1 billion (38% of total gross profit).57%), a decrease of 4 per year.49%. The steel supply chain business maintained stable operations and achieved gross profit1.1 billion (20% of total gross profit).22%), an annual increase of 30.37%; Considering the cost of transportation and miscellaneous expenses in selling expenses, the increase is about 0.41 million, we estimate that the profit contribution before tax of this business increased by 0.1.6 billion.The actual delivery scale was smaller than the same period last year, and the gross profit was 0.5.2 billion (9% of total gross profit).43%), a decrease of 7 per year.62%. Long-term optimistic about the special case circuit, the expansion of the market scale helps the company grow. As the special case is a heavy asset business, with the increase in business volume, the purchase of boxes has brought a lot of capital expenditure.The company issued a special case purchase announcement in March 2018, with a total investment of approximately 2.1 billion yuan. Among them, about 90,000 yuan has been occupied in 2018, and about 3 in the first half of 2019.5.6 billion.Looking forward to the second half of the year, the throughput of special containers will continue to expand, and business profitability will maintain a high growth rate. Poor demand for commodities such as coal and iron ore may continue to affect the volume and price of the Sakai Line and supply chain businesses. In 2018, the State Council and the National Railway Group successively issued transportation structural adjustment plans.According to the “2018-2020 Incremental Action Plan for Railway Freight Transport”, the national railway’s average annual growth rate in container traffic is 20%, of which the multimodal container transportation strives for an average annual growth of more than 30%. Cut target price to 7.20-7.50 yuan, downgraded to “overweight” rating companies in the future include: 1) expansion of special container business; 2) growth in railway freight volume; 3) railway reform.There is still a lack of catalysts in the short term. The sand sack line and supply chain business are related to the demand for commodities and are gradually under pressure.我们基于下半年业绩展望，调整2019\2020\2021 年的归母净利预测至4.93\5.57\6.3.2 billion (previously 5.92\6.92\7.9.2 billion).The company estimates itself at its highest level in history, with a PE (TTM) average of 36x over the past 5 years.With reference to the comparable company Guangzhou-Shenzhen Railway’s non-earnings ratio of 21x 2019PE, we are based on 19-20x 2019PE (previously 22-2深圳桑拿网 3x 2019PE) and 2019E EPS 0.377 yuan, lowered the target price to 7.20-7.50 yuan (the previous time was 10).0-10.4 yuan).Downgrade to “overweight” level. Risk warning: The special container business is less than expected, and the railway reform is less than expected.
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